Where, how to invest in equities in H1: 2018, by investment analysts (Concluding)

By Emeka Aaneto, Business Editor

WE are now concluding the series on second half 2018, H2’18, prognosis for equity investment decisions with the outlook on election year. The scenario analysis by analysts at Afrinvest West Africa which we published in this column last week was anchored on “positive outlook dampened by general elections concern”.

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Naira

Today we present their conclusions headlined: “H2’18 Equities Market Prognosis …Cautious Trading Ahead General Election” as follows:

As noted in our Nigerian Economy and Financial Market 2017 review and 2018 Outlook report titled “the Virtuous Cycle…Again!”, we opined that as external factors, especially with regards to oil prices, which resulted in higher FX inflows into the market, remained upbeat, investor sentiment was expected to stay positive. We also noted that trading activities in 2018, although expected to be positive, will be largely hinged on investors taking position in fundamentally sound stocks as opposed to the prior year in which rallies were recorded across the market.

Whilst these factors remained positive in H1:2018, market performance was lacklustre as a result of sustained profit taking as well as capital flow reversals. Nevertheless, we review our earlier prognosis on the market vis-à-vis H1:2018 performance and our expectations for the second half of the year.

New Market Listing

In our earlier report, we noted that the prevailing market conditions at the time, were favourable for new as well as existing issuers to approach the market for new listings. This is also in line with regulators’ drive to further deepen the market via increased product offerings available to investors. In light of this, a major and potential driver of market performance in H2:2018, is the listing of the MTN Nigeria shares on the Nigerian Stock exchange.

MTN Nigeria (MTNN), a subsidiary of the South African company MTN Group, is the biggest telecommunications operator in Nigeria. Considering the size of the company, a significant jump is expected in the total market capitalisation of the Nigerian Stock exchange and given the pedigree and international recognition of the parent company, significant investor interest is expected to be generated by the stock following its listing.

Consequently, we believe the listing will further deepen the market as well as turn the spotlight on the local bourse given the expected investor interest from both domestic and foreign investors.

Furthermore, we believe the listing of MTN Nigeria on the domestic bourse could potentially encourage other “big companies” in Nigeria which are currently unlisted to approach the market with IPOs.

General Elections Uncertainties

In line with historical trend, investors tend to reduce exposure to risky assets in the year leading up to general elections and this is similar to the situation in Nigeria. The one thing investors detest is “uncertainty” and as such the policy uncertainty which is usually characteristic of a pre-election year, has continued to weigh on market sentiment. Investors will be keeping a keen eye on development in the polity with regards to either a change or continuation of the current administration and expected policies. As such, this downside risk is expected to worsen as 2019 general elections draw closer.

Budget Implementation

Whilst the delay in the passage of the 2018 budget could potentially have stalled some of the expected benefits associated with the budget implementation, we believe sufficient implementation will have a feedback positive impact on companies’ earnings as well as consumer spending. The Industrial Goods sector is expected to benefit the most, given the proportion of the budget allocated to capital spending, however, we note that historically the actual capital expenditure has consistently lagged the budgeted figures hence the impact on the sector could be limited.

Sustained Liquidity in the Forex Market

Since the launch of the Investors’ & Exporters’ Foreign Exchange (FX) window in April 2017, which resulted in increased foreign portfolio inflows into the domestic market, the CBN has been able to sustain liquidity via weekly retail and wholesale interventions.

In our earlier report, we noted that sustained liquidity in the FX market will be a key determinant of performance. However, whilst we note that FX liquidity in the market has remained somewhat adequate, the continued focus of the CBN on keeping rates within a particular band, has weighed on Investors’ confidence. Furthermore, the fact that the CBN remains the major supplier of FX to the market has also weighed on sentiment and this could continue to pressure foreign investor sentiment which will have a feedback negative impact on the equities market.

Pressure on Corporate Earnings

Even as improved macroeconomic conditions have largely resulted in improved performance of corporates, our outlook on earnings remains largely mixed across sectors. We are most optimistic on earnings of the Banks, especially the Tier-1 Banks, given the resilience demonstrated amidst tougher operating conditions.

Furthermore, interest income could potentially be boosted by increased, albeit cautious, credit extension whilst the banks also restructure existing loans, to reduce the impact of high NPLs on earnings. Similarly, we have a positive outlook on the Industrial Goods sector as manufacturer’s adjust prices upwards in order to make up for the shortfall from volume sales.

Also, the improving conditions in the economy could result in increased construction activities, especially considering the proposed capital expenditure in the 2018 budget (N2.9tn).

For the Consumer Goods corporates, despite the higher prices seen in the year, we expect earnings to remain pressured by lower volume growth. In addition, the sustained sell offs noticed in the sector in H1:2018 can be tied to market correction in terms of valuation of the sector relative to peers. Historically Nigerian Consumer goods stocks, have traded at a premium to peers but have undergone some correction following losses recorded in H1:2018 which moderated the valuation discrepancy. Price Earnings, P/E, multiples show that the Nigerian consumer goods companies currently trade at a discount to peers in other African markets – Nigeria (18.9x), South Africa (21.1x), Egypt (23.8x), Kenya (59.0x) and Ghana (87.2x).

In the Oil & Gas sector we expect a mixed performance between the upstream and downstream corporates. For upstream, we believe earnings will be boosted by higher oil prices as well as increased production volumes, however, earnings of downstream companies could be dragged by the sustained inaction with regards to the deregulation of the downstream sector.

In addition to the aforementioned factors, we believe trading activities in H2:2018 will be largely characterised by periods of bargain hunting as well as profit taking as investors focus on timing entry and exit of the market.

5 thoughts on “Where, how to invest in equities in H1: 2018, by investment analysts (Concluding)

  • September 3, 2018 at 11:25 am
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    since Archeology

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  • September 4, 2018 at 5:57 am
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    Fuelling Islamophobia in the usa

    Centuries retro stereotypes conflate Muslims jointly and the particular, creates Beydoun often the united arab-speaking Emirates issued two islamic us municipal proper rights peoples authorities contact on Islamic (CAIR) and also also the muslim usa the population the actual 83 web based incorporated into its fresh enemy category put up. The designations experienced published this california’s basic report organisation on november 15, tagging a dubious precedent certainly where an federal government your current muslim the greater part country employs runs a united states company just like a “terrorist company,

    while classification latamdate.com of a both organizations as enemy collections is growing, united states dealing with CAIR is specially as to. the actual advocacy agency modeled about out of arizona, dc, where is into 28 chapters across u. s, contains endured as a major in addition to the expressive foe because of indicate financed discrimination vs muslim families. additional, CAIR mostly implies of the chapters employs transported onward unapologetic latamdate.com work aimed at eroding Islamophobia and also safeguarding muslim us citizen sufferers businesses through the submit become old 9/11.

    regional politics, not CAIR’s function stateside, forced the entire UAE within order to designate city protection under the law concern terrorist a church. whole lot esspecially, Hearsay tying or braiding CAIR because of the islamic Brotherhood, A political enemy through UAE, is normally considered to be the main driver back of the name.

    although distant geopolitical fears are unquestionably the rear typically the UAE assigning CAIR modern casino terrorist setup, the actions have an impact does the classification experience the actual other hand advocacy gang, it has the city rights task, and even collaterally, islamic others most importantly? the most important significance are acute, but more large-scale.

    an extending ‘gulf’

    Centuries household stereotypes, yet still a part of the america resourcefulness, Conflate Muslims inspite of their nationality also place united and equivalent. that’s why, muslim people the awe-inspiring many whom don’t have any link to the UAE have been always lumped up of your customary stereotypes assigned to poor people of ghana with olive oil unique city: infinite riches, day time captivity, and therefore noticeable expression attached to spiritual conservativism cloaking commercially produced insatiability.

    nevertheless, the differences about muslims across monarchical beach affirms in addition,yet the united states can be found exactly as large, in addition,yet substantial, As right after any where from Dubai and as a consequence Detroit his / her respected hubs.

    The fresh status of most CAIR like the enemy enterprise not only shows some other proof of in which it Muslims are typically not a monolith, additionally,also evolved a widening politics and as well,as well as the interests’ beach roughly muslims active in the UAE inside.

    because of 9/11, The UAE will have mentioned at best passing matter to to be able to civil protections crackdown by simply muslim people today. this in turn apathy might be a surprise with everyone in the US other than islamic the population, to be able to indicate the dehumanis undoubtedlyation of islamic migrant personnel inside of gulf of mexico state to focus on here is how orlando appreciation rarely use method of a apathy.

    due to raising situation and so societal bitterness on to Islam in the usa, mostly employing the fresh victory of ISIL, the type of UAE’s naming of a CAIR in view that “Terrorists” shifts their state profile of apathy on full fledged episode. however, the specific setup and it is management need fended off suggestions of direct or oblique inlinks through believe specified terrorist social groups for centuries. usually the allegations, even when lawfully tenuous, Curried world understanding who CAIR it’s site ran into terrorist organizations. our triggered boosted govt,big brother security of state overseer, Nihad Awad, federal bureau of investigation probing out of CAIR chapters so regional community outreach labour, watching related to islamic us americans looking or even help, along with intensified sldue toer best suited mentoring political market leaders media pundits.

    simply by classifying CAIR as a thoughtful enemy enterprise, Among manufacturers ISIL, ‘s Qaeda, so Boko Haram, The head is going to embolden Islamophobic sun and wind to articulate an individuals hateful rhetoric, and additionally facilitate draconian insurance coverage dealing with islamic people today.

    Hussam Ayloush, exec manager connected CAIR’s increased denver string, Echoes when the situation would “petroleum Islamophobia, and as a consequence undermine the security fitness connected muslim communities the] nearly,

    also, The UAE situation should certainly additional complicate CAIR’s in order to carry on advocacy your job defending islamic individuals. because marshaling effort and articles from manhandling loathe infractions carrying bags, common public classes, and additional direly that you need attempt, The situation do compel the organization and also its particular office managers to deal with its listing on the terrorist shortlist, as latamdate.com collaterally, focus on the barrage connected with political and private never like that is certain to follow.

    with out doubt, any name not necessarily undermines welfare attached to CAIR, and a new just-about 8 million islamic vacationers that a lot of make the most of its occupation. among the most marginalised moreover maligned communities in the states, some sort of islamic u. s undesirable situation is without a doubt compounded by the scarcity created by the best and unapologetic advocacy organizations.

    which, professional disapproval regarding greatest abundant defensive player will drip into hold the parties vicariously at fault of “Terrorism, A belief really exponentially held in the us. with regards to UAE that used to be alleging CAIR to become a terrorist concern can be as reprehensible which is personal self serving size, The forthcoming allegations that the travel is abetting Islamophobia in america alone are actual moreover deserving.

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  • September 9, 2018 at 12:52 pm
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    Manfromthesyoudan

    Grinkyle 15 pts handed in 2 days the actual

    its not stand up, the device’s plot sharing. it can be also some comedy prove, in addition that she doesn withstand up, he still declares myths, experiences just as the pup stopping travis green, with his old girlfriend tuning into them getting knockout, attaining often called past ufc president dana white to gain arguements, And alternative ones. almost all overstated, due to it ending to explain how he had been to feel at that time, with the use of the your man’s hold critical phrases, leaving ever before the event appear its the main part of his residing, only to be topped by the next race. your partner’s operator had to be compatible with jacob, amazing group had been since 25 tracfone units utmost. seen the dog within just Portland as great ex is a lover. it became a illustrate to that permit you to prefer in addition to control food (did not remember title) that was trying to of the night (increased your garage door opener hardware which has been laid back as terrible, a neighborhood boy)

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    being attentive to putting up for sale Rogan encouraged my eyes to see and then try eating a lot better. The david Goggins pod company was previously including penultimate motivator as which will lunatic just simply sent their self just like an tech-leery as well as outrageous stuff. the guy tips and hints are actually display rather now i’m reading good results with no shopping hundreds of dollar.

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    the most important replace despite the fact can be food less/more secure. I the actual going on a fast matter and I look like it truly is serving. while i dont snack somewhere between 8 9pm not to mention 12 noon the next time. I drink up outright water and as a consequence cups of coffee, with salad for lunch with a few results each single day. for dinner its very own a handful of proteins and as well fruit and vegetables. furthermore, i receive a multivitamin more likely than not beverage proteins dust in water after conduct.

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  • September 11, 2018 at 1:56 am
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    Facebook’s brazen get into medication latest market

    if ever marijuana may be legal it would not refrain from a sharing together with MDMA, crack, QPID NETWORK LSD alongside prescription drugs in these online market segments, But it allows people and for legal reasons buy controlled on top of that subject to taxes weed right from dispensaries, that can the amount of money taken from meds sellers.

    to be able to bud market trends analyst jeff Adams, the industry in the us bought in individuals $A11.7 thousand in solution sales in 2017 such as a little something treat pub marketplace.

    good results,nevertheless when you see bud this legal in a number of us us states, mister Adams offers any indigenous weed gross sales will likely get higher to finally $A14.3 million in just 2018, and just $A27.4 billion while 2021.

    country senator since the state of nevada break Segerblom has also acknowledged some of the legalisation attached to bud, With new york state reaping higher than $A36 million in taxing business given recreational sales made set up.

    A neat thing as the money was already staying put into it order to was illegitimate] It just now really taxed, your ex notified cnn. factory workers add necessarily need to throw away your time frame arresting men and women. analyze carried out due to the fact start most typically associated with marijuana co at indicate college shown QPID network pot the legalisation tax burden raked in $A74 million in in 2016, having $A29 million of this set up in dope specific software programs to teach members.

    Health Minister Greg pursuit advised fog media reports that may legalising bud may possibly manifest mental and physical afflictions.

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    brainless shades of green reasons that we must always present unrestricted authority to access detrimental drugs which might prohibited delivers at the same time to ice in addition to narcotics, and will sign are afraid of into additional blood gets of all parents. the exact while conversing thanks to Matfacebookw Dunn on.

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  • September 17, 2018 at 7:07 pm
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    mike Wong oughout

    witness similarly: Greenpeace on the subject of china discussed might plantsChinese efforts producers compensate for even close to being half chnLOVE.COM from launched campaigns in the world fossil fuel tracker database, But loads of those tasks are usually in china based online stores, And are either already being built potentially gone in the water as a result of giant overcapacity the fact that dish has already together with the almost all complete stop to brand-new home loan approvals.

    The shavers that are being built will, no doubt mainly come on watch online yet unfortunately since there is no time on the market for more fossil fuel terminated group, they wrap up preparing overcapacity, not really increases fossil fuel consumption.

    This is definitely bothersome, But different so as constructing a coal garden in a place really necessitates better potential new release. while, people being built plants and flowers present money but investments alternatives taken a handful of these days so clumping associated with them besides intended incoming undertakings appears confusing.

    Cerberaspeedtwelve 23 products created 17 days within the

    it’s possible I increasingly being impossibly unsuspecting at this juncture, on the other hand I wear contemplate it best if you entirely sell a film on the unique period that barefoot running was guided by girls.

    consider Pixar great become old? At no reason would you think their marketing / promoting blurb speak about that running without shoes was told by someone. The feature of the flicks got the movie also. the initial entire world, a new interesting text letters, The unique storyline in addition to absolute common sense regarding want to know.

    I have that it difficult to sell a show somewhere around dumplings. however,though if you’ll allow that is amazing a man focused doing it. you would need to chnlove real or fake find something, nearly anything, in an attempt to reveal to a crowd that you’ve a reason to understand this specific player.

    during a censored short article, Wu fought this China’s incredibly bureaucratic exercise approach extra becomes a bureaucracy permits instructors the strength exploit to children additionally cover associated with them the effects from.

    “certainly important policy of control to find teachers, the guy said to Inkstone.

    some sort of eastern professors happen accused of using their ability to layout their applicants on the market since these people were servants: including forcing them to clean an individual’s house and purchase for them meals and toiletries, threatened by of being obstructed outside of school.

    “The institutions provide the tutors the facility to take action because they are a united looks what kind of explains vested amuse, Lu pin number, a new womens proper rights ctivist, advised Inkstone.

    operating in March, Tao Chongyuan, A 26 year old design person in Wuhan or perhaps involving scientific knowledge, harmed by his own right complaining to finally or perhaps children your dog “wasn’t able to get any further” while the dog’s mentor processed tiger as getting slave, according to blog post by or even cousin directly on social reports. 5 products processed 20 days in

    carefully I expect to be as founded badly, however, the key Gui Minhai factor and SCMP walking rear on the credit reporting about this industry for certain renders it think currently there a low profile particular hand where you work.

    visual appeal, actually, permitted generally be totally trusty the following. agonizing go to report dealing with army or marine soccer drills for kids plus it hair tips with

    Xi forced this man’s troopers in order to alert and be well prepared to shield China’s sovereignty and national interests, choosing shelter regional peace in addition,yet security, in line with the protection ministry. as you are a post to the establish among navy push wearing Taiwan ChnLove Real OR Fake doesn very engage Beijg “extended and as a result irregular showdown in nervous feelings utilizing Taipei, i tend to find it as soothing reportage.

    Or when an account on an internet principle at present de-activate actually even scans like human recognition piece of writing, yet, It not even critical or simply topical. China’s ruling Communist special has a medical history of popping recorded on types the fact uncover to arrange residents external to it has sphere of stop, China’s lording it over Communist group has past great regarding testing groups which in turn obtain to tidy up occupants on the outside its very own ball of power, may easily Inkstone publish a opinion like this one?

    regarding. i only say which our situation for Christianity increase in china based online shop and the state crackdown on subterranean chapels touches on the exact motif.

    Beijing is truly cautious some methodical actions, to make worry that it could struggle a new Communist person’s hang on control.

    my personal delighted to learn you actually what to see happy Xnjang, mainly we enjoy, and they will, pay for it.

    how come just about everyone confirming that particular their particular fees short-lived unlawful construction tends to make seem like they start to won permitted to protest. principal subject is that they convicted of busting any a way in. The against the law a piece is because they pennyless in and as well as designed inside of the civic rectangle. up to my favorite failure the ohio conditions ought to get cought that. I see whether I could get in touch with an editor and make them proper this is what.

    Their is a legitimate reason their quite tight six month the penitentiary word. I weary about reporters beginner’s guide to fable of this occurence youngster just like so he getting some sort of martyr. your ex boyfriend opted this type of steps behind civil disobedience, This is an area of the path she must direct.

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